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Mark Magarian: Bonds Are Presenting an Asymmetric Setup For Gold to Outperform

Tom welcomes back Mark Magarian, Senior Portfolio Manager at Pine Valley Investments. They discuss the yield curve inversion and its historical track record of eventually un-inverting. He expressed optimism for gold and investing in gold-mining companies, citing their current low valuations and potential for significant returns.

He emphasized the importance of timing and finding asymmetric bets in investments, as well as doing thorough research on companies trading at a discount to intrinsic value.

Mark also discussed the caution needed when investing in Greenfield projects and the importance of free cashflow and profitability in investments.

He shared his bullish view on energy, particularly oil and gas, and stressed the importance of cashflow as the ultimate king in investing. Additionally, he advised staying agnostic in investment decisions and not being swayed by biases or hype in certain sectors. Mark recommended finding a competent financial advisor for investment advice.

Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:43 – Bond Inversion & Markets
5:33 – Signals & Un-inversions
10:24 – Miners & Opportunity
11:40 – Timing & The Markets
16:23 – Focus & Approach
19:00 – Portfolio Positioning
21:05 – Gold & Silver
22:47 – Gold Price Vs. Miners
26:02 – Finding Good Assets
30:17 – Producing Assets & Risks
34:48 – Conviction & Methodology
37:12 – Energy & Other Sectors
42:18 – Bias & Finding Value
47:23 – Wrap Up

Talking Points from this Episode

  • Research companies to identify investment opportunities with asymmetric upside potential and minimal downside risk.
  • He stresses the importance of separating macro views from the actual results while investing.
  • Look for assets that can have controlled cash flow, and assess if markets are pricing them correctly.
  • Find a competent financial advisor to help with investments, especially when managing large sums of money.

Guest Links:

Mark Magarian is Senior Portfolio Manager at Pine Valley Investments LLC. Previously, he was a Vice President and Portfolio Manager for Wells Fargo Advisors. He has been in the business for over twenty years. The first half of his career was spent working with hedge funds, and John Paulson was one of his biggest clients. Career Highlights include working for Deutsche Bank in London as a Vice President and being part of the investment team at Gruss & Co.

Since moving to the United States twelve years ago, he became a portfolio manager and has focused on a hard asset strategy that has, at its core, a focus on precious metals.

He is a value investor at heart, but one with a macro perspective for our position in the market cycle. Specialties include managing a tactical growth portfolio and creating customized solutions.

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