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Matthew Piepenburg: Depression Level Economy For The U.S. Is Here

Tom welcomes back Matthew Piepenburg of Matterhorn Asset Management. They discusses various empirical indicators that suggest the US and the world are facing a recession. Matthew points to the yield curve, the Conference Board of Leading Indicators, the M2 money supply, the Fitch downgrade of the US Treasury, and the layoffs of major companies as evidence of an economic downturn. He also highlights the increase in bankruptcies, credit card delinquencies, and car loan repos, and refers to the “Oliver Anthony indicator” which reflects the struggles of the middle class due to non-reported inflation.

Piepenburg warns against placing too much faith in technology to solve economic problems and emphasizes the importance of human insight. He argues that the US is in a depression rather than just a recession. He also discusses the risks of currency devaluation, the dangers of government centralization of power, and the need for financial policies and austerity measures.

Piepenburg criticizes the lack of transparent political figures and the influence of special interests and lobbyists. He warns of potential consequences of the current trends in bond buying, the transition away from the US dollar, and the potential changes to the global financial system. He suggests that the COVID-19 pandemic may be a catalyst for structural changes in the financial system. Lastly, he highlights the rise of the Shanghai Gold Exchange as a potential competitor to London and COMEX in determining the price of gold.

Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:37 – The General Decline
7:38 – Depression Already Here
10:32 – Growth & Technology
16:27 – Endgame for Debt Systems
30:47 – Politics Ruins Everything
36:23 – Bonds & Feds Future Action
43:18 – Dedollarization & Trade
50:20 – Gold Moving East & Pricing
57:28 – Gold and Risk Mitigation
1:01:30 – Powell & Inflation
1:04:48 – 2018 QT & Repo Crisis
1:07:47 – Wrap Up

Talking Points From This Episode

  • US treasuries are being overbought by accessible investors such as hedge funds and low-yielding bonds are pushing up bond prices. The Federal Reserve is likely to intervene in such a situation to artificially support the bond market.
  • The US dollar is being challenged by nations introducing alternative forms of payments for transactions outside the dollar, leading to a gradual deterioration of the currency’s power.
  • Gold is seen as a finite asset and store of value, and central banks are turning to gold due to its inflation hedge qualities, especially amid the threat of Donald Trump’s QE ‘backdoor’. John William’s position that inflation is closer to 10% has been discussed and gold is becoming increasingly popular amongst China’s youth.

Guest Links
Book (Amazon):

Matthew Piepenburg is the Commercial Director of Matterhorn Asset Management AG and the author of the popular book, “Rigged to Fail”. Matt is fluent in French, German, and English. He is a graduate of Brown (BA), Harvard (MA), and the University of Michigan (JD). His widely-respected reports on macro conditions and the changing behavior of risk assets are published regularly at

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