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Michael Oliver: All Structural Momentum Pointing to the Sky for Gold, Silver, and Especially Junior Miners

Tom welcomes a new guest, Michael Oliver, to the program. Michael discusses his early career back in the mid-70s when gold was legalized. At the time, he didn’t know much about markets and technical analysis. He looked for opportunity and ended up apprenticing under David Johnston, who was Chairman of the Comex.

Instead of focusing on price, he looks at long-term trends, which is important because price being based in fiat can be misleading. He says, “Today, we are in the hyper-space of money printing.” Using price can be compared to building a house with a yard-stick that changes in length. Their focus is on the longer-term and not the day to day, they look for structure rather than short moves in momentum.

Long-term momentum can enable an investor to see the pattern before it shows up in the price chart. He provides us with some of their charts for gold and silver that demonstrate these advantages. Currently, momentum charts are looking very bullish for gold and the larger view shows that we are nowhere near being overbought.

He doesn’t believe the markets are going up for much longer, as often a bear trend can take a few months to settle in, which is likely what we will see. He compares today’s markets with the Nasdaq crash that started in 2000. Michael sees clear signs that Fed Chair Powell is in complete panic.

Time Stamp References:
0:35 – His early career and training.
4:00 – Momentum methodology.
11:30 – Momentum structuring and charts.
18:00 – Silver momentum chart.
27:20 – General equity second leg down.
35:00 – Fed is very concerned.
38:35 – GDX Outlook.

Talking Points From This Episode

  • Early career and examining momentum.
  • There methodology and gold chart.
  • Monthly momementum chart for silver.
  • Fed is in complete panic.
  • Expectations for the GDX.

Michael Oliver entered the financial services industry in 1975 on the Futures side, joining E.F. Hutton’s International Commodity Division, headquartered in New York City’s Battery Park. He studied under David Johnston, head of Hutton’s Commodity Division and Chairman of the COMEX.

In the 1980s Mike began to develop his own momentum-based method of technical analysis. He learned early on that orthodox price chart technical analysis left many unanswered questions and too often deceived those who trusted in price chart breakouts, support/resistance, and so forth.

In 1987 Mike technically anticipated and caught the crash. It was then that he decided to develop his structural momentum tools into a full analytic methodology.

In 1992 the Financial VP and head of Wachovia Bank’s Trust Department asked Mike to provide soft dollar research to Wachovia. Within a year, Mike shifted from brokerage to full-time technical research. He is also the author of The New Libertarianism: Anarcho-Capitalism.

Guest Links:
Amazon Book

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