Michael Oliver: Fed has Damaged Markets and Its Credibility
Tom welcomes Michael Oliver back from Momentum Structural Analysis. Michael discusses where we are in the bear market and how much longer it could last. He believes the next lows will set the tone for the bear market. Continued weakness in the Nasdaq is very bearish for broader equities, and since last June, there has been a lot of sideways chop in the S&P. A sell-off after the next high is certainly a possibility, and we should expect more volatility in markets this year.
The opposite is true of silver and gold, as the Fed is likely to become concerned about problems in the financial sector. Janet Yellen has commented on the lack of liquidity in the bond markets, and though 30-year bonds are in rally mode, Michael is skeptical that rates have peaked. A decline in bonds with rising yields seems likely. There is also pressure on the Fed which could lead to its demise in a few years.
We’ve seen a lot of paper assets decline in the past year, while gold and commodities have held up well. Consumer credit is skyrocketing, along with persistent inflation that is hitting families hard. Repossessions and mortgage failures are likely. If there is a new wave up in commodities, it will only further erode confidence in our leaders.
Silver’s spread has broken out and is doing quite well in percentage terms; Michael compares gold’s historic moves with today’s, noting historically it’s not unusual for gold to have eight-fold moves in a few years. He thinks the same could happen with silver and doesn’t rule out $200 silver. He believes Bitcoin has been beaten up enough and will move sideways for some time.
Uranium has also been holding up well compared with pullbacks in oil and natural gas.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:30 – Bear Market Thoughts
5:45 – S&P, Gold & Silver
7:50 – Rate Hikes & Fed
12:08 – Dollar Confidence
14:50 – Fed’s Options & Impact
20:53 – Inflation & Commodities
28:38 – Blame The Fed?
34:23 – Energy & Investors
37:28 – Gold Strength & Silver
45:10 – Bitcoin Reliability
48:32 – Thoughts on Uranium
51:02 – Expect a Volatile 2023
52:35 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- The bear market and how much longer it could last.
- Gold and silver have been performing opposite to the bear market.
- An eight-fold move in gold is possible and has occurred historically.
- The Fed could soon reach a confidence crisis when its policies fail to work.
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J. Michael Oliver entered the financial services industry in 1975 on the Futures side, joining E.F. Hutton’s International Commodity Division, headquartered in New York City’s Battery Park. He studied under David Johnston, head of Hutton’s Commodity Division and Chairman of the COMEX.
In the 1980s, Mike began to develop his proprietary momentum-based method of technical analysis. He learned early on that orthodox price chart technical analysis left many unanswered questions and too often deceived those who trusted in price chart breakouts, support/resistance, and so forth.
In 1987 Mike technically anticipated and caught the Crash. It was then that he decided to develop his structural momentum tools into a full analytic methodology.
In 1992, the Financial VP and head of Wachovia Bank’s Trust Department asked Mike to provide soft dollar research to Wachovia. Within a year, Mike shifted from brokerage to full-time technical analysis. He is also the author of The New Libertarianism: Anarcho-Capitalism.