Michael Oliver: Gold is About to Enter it’s Next Leg-Up
Tom welcomes Michael Oliver back from Momentum Structural Analysis. Michael believes the movement in gold last week was just the start of another bull run. Silver is in a similar pattern to gold but needs to reach $25.37 on a weekly close to trigger a move higher.
The thirty-year treasuries are the most illiquid and are behaving like gold. These bonds are also the least influenced by the Feds’ actions. There seems to be some money moving to safer assets. Eventually silver will outperform gold.
Michael feels we are in a topping pattern for the markets. He details some specific targets on the downside which if reached would break long-term structures. The markets can’t afford a drop beyond a few percent. These momentum structures are likely to be resolved next year. He questions what central banks will do the next time debt structures begin to break down. They are caught in a historic dilemma.
We are heading toward a 1970s style stagflation but this time there won’t be a way out. At the end of the next crisis, we will have to start over. Hopefully, we end up with a new period of stable currencies with a new gold backing. This will be a traumatic period but also one of healing.
He particularly likes natural gas and suggests that it can go as high as nine dollars this winter. These high prices will affect everything that industry produces including fertilizer production. Live cattle prices are just now breaking upwards and this is going to impact meat prices.
We’re going to see gyrations between inflation and deflation that will surprise most economists.
Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Intro
0:32 – Gold & Silver Upturn?
4:56 – Treasuries & Gold
8:10 – Markets & Topping
15:08 – Will Rates Rise?
17:02 – Bitcoin Vs. Gold
19:06 – 1970s Stagflation
21:42 – Currency Replacements
22:41 – Commodity Issues & Energy
26:37 – Energy & Recession
27:26 – Technicals & Time
31:25 – A Flawed Yardstick
34:44 – Momentum Structures
36:48 – Metal Proxies & GDX
39:08 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Current market conditons and potential for the metals.
- Inflation expectations and Feds response
- Commodity markets and energy’s effect on them.
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J. Michael Oliver entered the financial services industry in 1975 on the Futures side, joining E.F. Hutton’s International Commodity Division, headquartered in New York City’s Battery Park. He studied under David Johnston, head of Hutton’s Commodity Division and Chairman of the COMEX.
In the 1980s, Mike began to develop his proprietary momentum-based method of technical analysis. He learned early on that orthodox price chart technical analysis left many unanswered questions and too often deceived those who trusted in price chart breakouts, support/resistance, and so forth.
In 1987 Mike technically anticipated and caught the Crash. It was then that he decided to develop his structural momentum tools into a full analytic methodology.
In 1992 the Financial VP and head of Wachovia Bank’s Trust Department asked Mike to provide soft dollar research to Wachovia. Within a year, Mike shifted from brokerage to full-time technical analysis. He is also the author of The New Libertarianism: Anarcho-Capitalism.