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Michael Oliver: Gold & Silver Go Vertical When This Indicator Breaks Trend

Tom welcomes Michael Oliver back from Momentum Structural Analysis to discuss the economy’s past year and its potential future direction. Michael highlights that although a significant number of “soft jobs” were created, the overall growth remained relatively flat and not as robust as portrayed in the mainstream media.

When analyzing the real estate market, including REITs, Michael finds that they are also facing challenges. Looking at his momentum charts, he observes clear signs of declining momentum in the S&P500, which could lead to a substantial correction. Contrary to popular belief, Michael argues that rate cuts are not bullish for the stock market, as they signal underlying concerns to investors. If the S&P500 drops below the 4500 level, further downside may be expected. In Michael’s view, the Fed will likely cut rates before June to regain control over the rapidly fluctuating T-Bill markets, considering they have limited influence on the long-end of the market.

Michael also discusses the relationship between gold and silver. While gold often lags behind, it can experience rapid increases in value, which silver tends to follow. Currently, silver is underperforming in comparison to gold, but Michael believes it may enter a new trading range and eventually outperform gold based on historical behavior.

In addition to economic factors, Michael emphasizes that the market is not adequately pricing in the uncertainties surrounding the 2024 election. A tumultuous period with little compromise from either side is expected, potentially leading to increased political polarization and a higher likelihood of violence from both ends. Michael even suggests that the possibility of states seceding is on the rise. With these factors in mind, he anticipates that a significant event will likely occur before the elections.

Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:32 – The Past Year & Metrics
3:59 – Consumer Spending (XLY)
6:48 – Real Estate & GDP/ISM Data
8:43 – Fed, S&P500, & Investors
14:58 – Bear Markets & Crashing?
19:08 – T-Bonds & TLT Charts
28:03 – Gold & Silver 2020-2024
33:43 – Silver Vs. Gold Spreads
49:28 – Politics & Market Trends
58:23 – Wrap Up

Talking Points From This Episode

  • The S&P500 is showing signs of declining momentum, which may lead to a significant market correction.
  • Silver is currently underperforming compared to gold, but historical behavior suggests it may outperform in the future.
  • The uncertainties surrounding the 2024 election are not adequately priced into the market.

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J. Michael Oliver entered the financial services industry in 1975 on the Futures side, joining E.F. Hutton’s International Commodity Division, headquartered in New York City’s Battery Park. He studied under David Johnston, head of Hutton’s Commodity Division and Chairman of the COMEX.

In the 1980s, Mike began to develop his proprietary momentum-based method of technical analysis. He learned early on that orthodox price chart technical analysis left many unanswered questions and too often deceived those who trusted in price chart breakouts, support/resistance, and so forth.

In 1987 Mike technically anticipated and caught the Crash. It was then that he decided to develop his structural momentum tools into a full analytic methodology.

In 1992, the Financial VP and head of Wachovia Bank’s Trust Department asked Mike to provide soft dollar research to Wachovia. Within a year, Mike shifted from brokerage to full-time technical analysis. He is also the author of The New Libertarianism: Anarcho-Capitalism.

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