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Michael Oliver: Large Funds are Starting to Take Notice of Commodities and Gold

Tom welcomes Michael Oliver back from Momentum Structural Analysis.

Michael notes that gold has not participated in the recent volatility and instead front ran most other commodities. He discusses the recent activity of markets and the impact on gold.

Michael discusses his call from October 2020 for a commodity explosion and how that played out. Commodities will have occasional pullbacks but but we in a new long-term bull market.

He discusses the crude market and how it was already moving late last year before Ukraine occurred. Crude could get quite volatile from here. Natural Gas broke out last year which signaled a major shift in markets. It may be at a fairly low-risk entry point and seems overdue to catch up.

Silver woke up in the summer of 2020 taking out a ceiling it had built. After that momentum cooled off with the price entering a trading range. Should we close out on the weekly above 26.50 you can expect a rapid breakout. Should gold ever move to $8000 then silver would be around $200. Silver has not collapsed but has bored everyone.

Michael discusses how the dollar index isn’t an index. Movements in the dollar index don’t directly relate to the dollar. The DXY is heavily weighted toward the Euro which reduces its usefulness. Try comparing currencies directly instead of relying on the weighted metrics of the DXY index.

They expect the commodity-based currencies to do well, particularly the Australian and Canadian dollars.

Stock markets and gold are currently inversely related, and the Fed is going to have to be careful. They want to raise rates so they can pull back once again. The next leg down for stocks will likely mean a new leg up for gold. Michael would not be surprised if the Fed is out of business inside of four years.

Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:52 – Recent Volatility
5:25 – Commodity Explosion
13:04 – Momentum & Support
22:18 – Sugar Outlook
24:50 – Silver Lagging
32:59 – Weekly Gold Sentiment
38:12 – DXY, the Dollar, & Gold
42:29 – AUD, CAD & Commodities
42:59 – Stock Markets & Gold
48:34 – Institutional Moves
52:12 – Gold & Bitcoin
55:07 – Wrap Up

Talking Points From This Episode

  • Momentum and calling the breakout in commodities.
  • Energy markets and why we can expect volatility in crude.
  • Thoughts on silver and why gold does not correlate well with DXY.
  • Current inverse relationship between equity markets and gold.

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J. Michael Oliver entered the financial services industry in 1975 on the Futures side, joining E.F. Hutton’s International Commodity Division, headquartered in New York City’s Battery Park. He studied under David Johnston, head of Hutton’s Commodity Division and Chairman of the COMEX.

In the 1980s, Mike began to develop his proprietary momentum-based method of technical analysis. He learned early on that orthodox price chart technical analysis left many unanswered questions and too often deceived those who trusted in price chart breakouts, support/resistance, and so forth.

In 1987 Mike technically anticipated and caught the Crash. It was then that he decided to develop his structural momentum tools into a full analytic methodology.

In 1992 the Financial VP and head of Wachovia Bank’s Trust Department asked Mike to provide soft dollar research to Wachovia. Within a year, Mike shifted from brokerage to full-time technical analysis. He is also the author of The New Libertarianism: Anarcho-Capitalism.

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