Michael Oliver: Silver to Reach $200 Per Ounce
Tom welcomes back Michael Oliver from Momentum Structural Analysis. He discusses past markets and how in the 1976 period, investors moved into commodities and stocks went sideways. Today, we are entering a similar period as most commodities have had long basing periods and are now turning upwards. This move seems to be caused by the expansion of the money supply and monetary policy.
Since mid-2018, gold has gone from $1160 to $2000 and has done so without the help of weak stock markets. Now the dollar is turning downwards while markets are at highs. Big investors seem to be moving assets into different sectors, and soon we may see a violent rebalancing.
He discusses how silver broke one of their momentum oscillators in July and, afterward, moved rapidly to near $30. He expects gold to do something very similar soon. This next move could easily be eightfold, and silver is now poised to outperform gold.
Major annual momentum shifts and macro factors are now spreading to the daily news. This chaos seemed baked into the cake a year ago. Michael cautions that the most delusional trend is the US stock market, and there are times when the Fed backs off, or the market collapses on its own regardless of Fed actions.
Today, there are only five or six stocks that comprise 50% of the Nasdaq 100. It looks like a blow-off top that began this summer, maybe topping out.
The dollar forecast is difficult to predict, but it usually follows the trend for some time. Michael outlines where treasuries may head and why we are entering a time of flight to safety. He says, “Many investor assumptions will be overturned this year.”
Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Intro
0:30 – Markets & T.A.
4:37 – Violent Rebalancing
8:00 – Gold 8x Forecast
13:00 – Silvers 10x Potential
15:10 – Momentum Vs. Price
16:58 – Seasonality & Trends?
17:47 – Timeline for Gold
20:34 – Equity Crash Coming?
23:50 – Mining Stocks
26:18 – US Dollar Breakdown
33:04 – Chart Indicators
34:40 – Key Levels
36:37 – Momentum & Methods
37:47 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
- Commodity cycle shift.
- Gold and silver forecast.
- Macro Factors and Stock Markets
- US Dollar Index and the 88 level.
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J. Michael Oliver entered the financial services industry in 1975 on the Futures side, joining E.F. Hutton’s International Commodity Division, headquartered in New York City’s Battery Park. He studied under David Johnston, head of Hutton’s Commodity Division and Chairman of the COMEX.
In the 1980s, Mike began to develop his proprietary momentum-based method of technical analysis. He learned early on that orthodox price chart technical analysis left many unanswered questions and too often deceived those who trusted in price chart breakouts, support/resistance, and so forth.
In 1987 Mike technically anticipated and caught the Crash. It was then that he decided to develop his structural momentum tools into a full analytic methodology.
In 1992 the Financial VP and head of Wachovia Bank’s Trust Department asked Mike to provide soft dollar research to Wachovia. Within a year, Mike shifted from brokerage to full-time technical research. He is also the author of The New Libertarianism: Anarcho-Capitalism.