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Simon Hunt: A Second, More Powerful Wave of Inflation is Coming

Tom welcomes back Simon Hunt to discuss the global economy and global political reality. Simon Hunt discusses the global economy and the rapidly declining trust between governments. Physical consumption of copper is weak and weakening, indicative of either being in a recession or entering one shortly. The various PMI indexes are pointing clearly to recession in the United States and savings rates are falling. Markets are propped up by the reported levels of employment, however he questions some of the data as companies are cutting hours. Europe is in a political mess with Germany in recession, and he expects the global economy to continue poorly into the fourth quarter.

Russia understands America’s role in the Ukraine War and it’s clear the West wants to dismember Russia for control of their natural resources. He anticipates the leadership in Russia to soon take the gloves off with Ukraine, resulting in a dramatic decline in western Equity Markets by the end of the year. This coupled with an increase in the conflict will result in western Central Banks to flush the system with money, causing horrendous inflation and a rapidly falling dollar.

Most G7 countries have severe demographic problems, particularly Germany, which could be their last decade as a powerful country due to lack of population. The BRICS+ nations have positive demographics and Iran is a sleeping giant with foreign investment pouring into the country exploring and developing their resources.

Real war is coming to Ukraine when Russia takes the gloves off, forcing the West to make some hard choices. This could dramatically escalate should Nato may enter the war more openly. Iran has contingency plans in the event that Israel or the USA tries to intervene and they are fully capable of shutting down the straights of Hormuz.

Simon believes there is not much time left for contingency planning by Western individuals and companies.

Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
1:20 – Copper Demand & Economy
7:15 – Russia & Central Banking
11:50 – Global Equity Markets
17:55 – 2030’s Global Recovery
19:50 – Job Data & Treasuries
23:39 – Treasury & Dollar Concerns
26:20 – BRICS & Gold Rumours
34:20 – Golds Future Role
38:30 – Commodity Importance
40:30 – China’s Reopening
49:20 – Chinese Citizen Debt
51:56 – Demographic Issues
54:40 – Foreign Investment – Iran
57:40 – Commodity Substitution
1:02:50 – Russia & NATO Escalation
1:08:24 – Potential Conflicts
1:09:41 – Closing Thoughts

Talking Points From This Episode

  • The global economy is in a recession, with weak copper demand and PMI indexes in the United States all in recession.
  • Russia is aware of America’s role in the Ukraine War and the West wants to dismember Russia for control of their natural resources.
  • Real war is coming to Ukraine when Russia takes the gloves off and Iran could be a wildcard.

Guest Links:

Simon Hunt began his career in 1956 in Central Africa as a PA to the Chairman of Rhodesian Selection Trust, one of the two large copper companies in what was then Northern Rhodesia, now Zambia.

In 1961, he came back to London and joined Anglo American Corporation of South Africa as a PA to one of the Board Directors, followed by being part of a small sales and marketing team for copper. From there, he helped start up a new copper development organization, CIDEC, financed by copper producers, which he then joined, focusing on conducting end-use studies of copper in Europe.

He then went into the City to gain financial experience and founded Brook Hunt in 1975. He was instrumental in setting up the company’s cost studies and end-use analyses. Simon appeared as material witness and consultant in two ITC anti-dumping cases in 1978 and 1984, winning both at the commission level.

He has spent 2-4 months every year in China since 1993, and until a few years ago would be visiting some 80 wire and cable and brass mill factories across the country every year. He now restricts these factory visits to a smaller number, all of which he has known for many years. Simon also spends many weeks each year traveling around Asia.

The focus of the company’s services is on the global economy, including the changing geopolitical and financial structures, China’s economy and its copper sector, and then the global copper industry as each part is interconnected.

Simon is the author of the “Frontline China Report Service,” which is marketed by the TIS Group. The Service provides regular reports on China’s economy, politics, and financial outlook.

Simon established this company in January 1996.

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