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Tavi Costa: Gold is About to Explode Higher Through a Triple Top

Tom Bodrovics welcomes back Tavi Costa of Crescat Capital to discuss the potential for a bull market in precious metals, particularly gold and silver. They believe that the current undervaluation of the metals and mining industry, coupled with various macroeconomic trends, presents an attractive investment opportunity. Tavi highlights the potential for increased M&A activity in the gold mining sector and the importance of finding major discoveries in the juniors. They also discuss the potential impact of ESG policies and green agendas on gold production.

Tavi Costa suggests that silver is worth paying attention to, citing factors such as increased imports from India and declining production from Peru and Mexico. He sees silver as a monetary and inflationary hedge.

They discuss the macroeconomic indicators pointing towards a potential recession, as well as potential opportunities in the commodity space.

Tavi Costa offers insights into the Argentine and Brazilian economies and suggests potential solutions to currency and investment issues in Brazil.

Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introductions
0:33 – Bullish Technicals
2:45 – Confirmation Levels
6:00 – Majors & Mine Reserves
9:23 – Miners Diversifying?
11:32 – Mining Seasonality
13:26 – Capital Rotation
16:24 – Setup For Silver Miners
18:00 – India Silver Imports
19:38 – Fundamentals Vs. Technicals
23:00 – Commodities to Equity Ratio
28:23 – Commodities & Inflation
33:20 – U.S. Bond Issuances
38:10 – Inverted Yield Curve
41:30 – Recession & Soft Landings
43:45 – Politics in Argentina
49:08 – Inflationary Eras
51:38 – Wrap Up

Talking Points From This Episode

  • Tavi discusses the opportunity for investors in the metals and mining industry.
  • Macroeconomic developments and market changes indicate a potential recession in the near future, and further inflation appears to remain an issue.
  • The cost of capital will be an important question if inflation remains high, and that in five to ten years, the changes in the market will be more obvious.

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Otavio (“Tavi”) Costa is a Member and Portfolio Manager at Crescat Capital and has been with the firm since 2013. He built Crescat’s macro model that identifies the current stage of the U.S. economic cycle through a combination of 16 factors.

His research is regularly featured in financial publications such as Bloomberg, The Wall Street Journal, CCN, Financial Post, The Globe and Mail, Real Vision, and Reuters. Tavi is a native of São Paulo, Brazil, and fluent in Portuguese, Spanish, and English. Before joining Crescat, he worked with the underwriting of financial products and international business at Braservice, a large logistics company in Brazil.

Tavi graduated cum laude from Lindenwood University in St. Louis with a B.A. degree in Business Administration with an emphasis in Finance and a minor in Spanish. Tavi played NCAA Division 1 tennis for Liberty University.

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