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Tavi Costa: Gold to be the Trade of the Century

Tavi Costa of Crescat Capital joins Tom to discuss the debt distortion in the markets. Tavi doesn’t expect a V-shaped recovery, and he says, “They have never been this bullish on gold and silver.”

He feels that China and Hong Kong are in massive credit bubbles that will burst. We are currently in a liquidity trap as the world has lost 50 trillion in market cap from February to the bottom in March. Amazingly even with massive money printing, we don’t yet have an excess of liquidity in the system. Gold equities are the only asset class in the world trading today at 1980 levels.

Time Stamp References:
0:40 – State of the markets.
3:20 – Crescats macro model
11:40 – The US Dollar outlook.
18:10 – The case for gold/silver.
22:10 – Crescats positioning.
26:50 – Leverage ETF Risks.
29:30 – Is a gold pullback possible?

Talking Points From This Episode
• Debt, equity markets, and economic cycles.
• Equities may have much further to fall.
• China and Hong Kong have massive credit bubbles.
• The bullish case for the dollar.

Otavio (“Tavi”) Costa is a Global Macro Analyst for Crescat Capital. He has been an analyst on Crescat’s investment team for more than five years, with a focus on global cross-asset research. “Tavi” built Crescat’s macro model that identifies the current stage of the US economic cycle through a combination of 16 factors. His research has been featured multiple times in financial publications such as Bloomberg, The Wall Street Journal.

Tavi is a native of São Paulo, Brazil and is fluent in Portuguese, Spanish, and English. Before joining Crescat, he worked with the underwriting of financial products and in international business at Braservice, a large logistics company in Brazil. Tavi graduated cum laude from Lindenwood University in St. Louis with a BA degree in Business Administration with an emphasis in finance and a minor in Spanish. Tavi played NCAA Division 1 tennis for Liberty University. Tavi’s twitter is: @TaviCosta

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